According to an LA Times article medical schools will boost their enrollment by 30% by 2013 to accommodate the forecasted doctor shortage.
The Association of American Medical Colleges predicts that by the year 2025 there will be a deficiency of about 125,000 doctors. The Health Resources and Services Administration estimates that there will be a shortage of 65,560 doctors following the year 2020. A third prediction, set by the American Academy of Family Physicians, suggests that by that time there will be a deficit of 149,000 physicians.
As if we don’t sit in waiting rooms long enough as it is!
These groups suggest that not only will patients have to spend more time in waiting rooms, but doctor visits will become briefer and costs will increase. People may have to travel farther distances to reach a particular specialist as well.
What is the source of this predicted shortage?
First, fewer doctors are interested in primary care or general surgery, and are instead opting to specialize. The reason for this is financial. According to the LA Times article, Medicare reimburses doctors $103.42 for a 30-minute general office visit. For a 30-minute colonoscopy, on the other hand, Medicare reimburses $449.44. Over a lifetime, this could amount to a $3.5 million difference. (That being said, a primary care physician will still probably make about $150,000 to $200,000 a year.)
Second, doctors aren’t as evenly distributed among disciplines as they once were. There are too many neonatal doctors and too few child psychiatrists, for example. Pediatric specialists in general make less than their adult alternatives. For example, a pediatric ophthalmologist makes about half of what an adult ophthalmologist makes.
Third, the baby boomers are getting on in years. People are living longer, thus extending their need for doctors. Between the years 2000 and 2030 the number of people over the age of 65 will double. People in this over 65 age bracket often require more than double the amount of care of younger adults.
According to Dr. David Goodman, director of the Center for Health Policy Research, the real risk isn’t a doctor shortage, but a shortage of funds at teaching hospitals and of doctors in particular areas, usually in inner cities or rural areas. It’s important to look at where doctors are located, not just how many doctors there are.
In order to reach underserved areas, Dr. Goodman suggests that doctors make better use of telemedicine, a service that would allow patients in rural or underserved areas access to medical care via audio/visual equipment.
Another solution is to encourage doctors to settle in these medically underserved areas. Recruiting people from these areas to attend medical school is one way of working towards this goal, as many would likely return to their hometowns after graduating.
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